Starkville, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

492
FXUS64 KJAN 100500 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Although the latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis still had
northwest flow aloft across our region, the latest surface
analysis had a high centered to our south over the northern Gulf.
This surface high was resulting in a light return flow that was
resulting in warmer temperatures and higher low level moisture
this evening than last evening. This will lead to warmer morning
lows Thursday. The current forecast remains on track. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Through early next week (Tuesday)...

Tonight-Thursday: Mean synoptic pattern will consist of ridging
over the Baja Peninsula & extending into the southern Desert
Southwest to near Four Corners while longwave troughing will
extend over the northern Plains, Mid-West states & east of the MS
River Valley. Spoke of jet energy is progged to continue to dig
southeast into the TN Valley while a more pronounced jet/deeper
spoke of vorticity will dig southward out of the Ozarks into the
Mid-South to Gulf Coast states into late Thursday afternoon to
evening hours. At the sfc, dry sfc ridging will keep the pattern
quiet tonight through Thursday afternoon, before jet ascent/frontal
convergence will pool sfc dewpoints in upper 50s to near 60F.
This will aid in initiation of potential organized convective
clusters & combined with steep lapse rates & increasing deep
shear favor organized clusters of storms Thursday evening. Lows
will be seasonable tonight (46-52F east of I-55 to 53-56F to the
west) while seasonably warm highs Thursday (78-84F). With
>45-60kts of mean bulk shear in the 0-3km to 0-6km layers, nearly
7.5 to 8.0 deg C mid-level lapse rates, 29-31C vertical totals &
MLCAPE around 700-1200 J/kg, organized severe storm threat is
favored. This supports fast southeast moving line clusters &
potential for damaging wind gusts >70mph & hail up to golf ball
size. Timing looks to be late afternoon, around 5-6PM in the Hwy
82 corridor & persisting through around midnight as it propagates
to the south- southeast into the I-20 corridor. The "Slight" risk
area was expanded to include all of the Hwy 82 corridor. Rain
chances will be scattered (15-40%) & highest coverage east of
I-55.

Late week into early next week (Friday-Tuesday): Dry pattern will
be the norm as mean ridging at the sfc & aloft gradually build in
from the northwest into the weekend. Northwesterly dry, subsident
flow & atmospheric profiles around 0.5 to 0.75 inch precipitable
water (PWs) will support a sunny period in the wake of the storms
Thursday. Reinforcing cool temps will build into the area this
weekend. Highs & lows will be seasonably cool both Friday &
Saturday, 3-8F below (highs: 68-78F Friday & 65-74F Saturday &
lows: 42-50F Saturday & Sunday mornings). Gusty northwesterly
gradient winds will be possible Saturday, but not enough of a
concern to add mention in the HWO at this time. As the mean ridge
in the mid-upper levels builds in & eastward through the weekend &
into next week, return flow will gradually pick up. Seasonably
warm highs/lows will moderate Sunday, highs some 2-6F above
(75-82F) & especially Monday, some 8-12F above (82-88F), with
seasonably warm lows, some 4-12F above (53-61F Monday morning &
58-62F Tuesday morning). /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the first 18 hours of the period
for all sites, northern sites will could see a dip into MVFR
associated with convective activity, we have kept all ceilings VFR
for the time-being considering the cloud decks begin moving in
near the end of the TAF period. All other sites will remain clear
for the remained of the period./OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  51  81  52 /   0   0   0  20
Meridian      72  48  81  51 /   0   0   0  30
Vicksburg     75  52  82  52 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   75  50  83  54 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       74  52  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    73  55  79  52 /   0   0  10  20
Greenwood     73  55  79  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/DC/OAJ